Turkish-Israeli relations have always been in flux. Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to recognise Israel, and the 1990s were characterised by strengthening relations[1]. However, relations began to deteriorate at the beginning of the 21st century, coinciding with the election of Erdogan and Turkey’s shift towards Islam and championing of the Palestinian issue. This deterioration reached its zenith after the 2010 Gaza Flotilla incident[2], with full diplomatic relations only restored over a decade later[3]. Following the 7th October, Turkish-Israeli relations have returned to rock-bottom, with Erdogan exclaiming that Turkey has “severed all relations with Israel”[4].
Concurrently, Bashar al-Asssad’s regime in Syria has fallen to Turkish-backed rebels, providing Erdogan the opportunity to reassert Turkish influence across a classical Ottoman region. This resembles Iran’s opportunities to restore influence across former Persian regions following the fall of Saddam in Iraq, which led to increased tensions with Israel. Given sunken Turkish-Israel relations, and Turkey’s newfound regional opportunities, will Turkey tread in Iran’s footsteps and emerge as Israel’s next great foe, a possibility hypothesised by the recent Nagel committee report[5], or is there reason to be optimistic about the future of the Turkish-Israeli relationship?
Mirroring Iran
Both Turkey and Iran envision a self-aggrandising destiny as a regional and global power, derived from nostalgia for their former empires. As such Turkey has strong contemporary interest in Syria. Turkey holds 3.2 million Syrian refugees[6] that Erdogan wishes to return as soon as possible due to the economic burden they have placed on Turkey. Erdogan also wants to eradicate Kurdish resistance in Syria, in contrast to Israel’s alignment with the Kurds, used to counter Iraqi and Iranian interests[7]. The Kurdish issue in Syria could become one point of contention between Israel and Turkey.
Another point of contention is Turkey’s strong relationship with the new Syrian regime, demonstrated by Turkish diplomats being the first foreign dignitaries to meet with the new Syrian leaders[8]. If Turkey begins to provide weapons to Syria, and Syria enters into a conflict with Israel, a possibility given the new Syrian regime’s Islamic terrorist origins and unresolved Syria-Israel border disputes, then Israel would be required to strike Turkish assets in Syria, analogous to Israel’s strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assets in Syria prior to Assad’s defeat, which led to direct Israel-Iran conflict. Hence, Turkey’s growing influence in Syria could precipitate a conflict between Israel and Turkey, mirroring the development of the Israel-Iran conflict.
Turkey’s domestic politics produces strong anti-Israel rhetoric. 84% of Turks, including 92% who voted for Erdogan, support Hamas in the current war[9], demonstrating strong domestic incentive for hostility towards Israel. Additionally, Erdogan is a strong supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood movement[10], of which Hamas is an offshoot, leading to strong Turkish support for Hamas, causing friction in Turkish-Israeli relations. Turkey’s domestic and ideological considerations have led to a deterioration in Turkish rhetoric regarding Israel, mirroring Iran’s anti-Israel hostility, which became a multiplier for Israel-Iran tensions, suggesting Turkish-Israeli relations may go the same way.
Moderating factors
Despite some of the similarities between Turkey and Iran, there are differences which can moderate Turkish-Israeli tensions. Unlike Iran, which is over 90% Shia[11], Turkey is 88% Sunni[12]. Therefore, whilst Iran, the centre of Shia thought, can exert influence across all Shia populations in the region, Turkey has to compete with other centres of Sunni power for regional influence, limiting Turkey’s ability to emulate Iran’s Shia crescent.
Unlike Iran, Turkey remains in the US security sphere and is a member of NATO. Thus, the US has incentive to moderate Turkish-Israeli tensions. Additionally, Israel and Turkey remain strategic partners to Azerbaijan, another country that can moderate Turkish-Israeli tensions.
In contrast to Iran’s consistent hostility towards Israel, Erdogan’s Israel policy has been characterised by flip-flopping, with periods of good and bad relations. Though, during periods of bad relations, trade relations have still been able to flourish. Hence, Turkey’s Israel policy could be interpreted more as short-term opportunism than a long-term anti-Israel plan that characterises Iranian policy.
Conclusion
Turkey has all the requisite attributes for mirroring Iran and becoming Israel’s next major foe. Turkey, like Iran, has ambitions to cultivate a sphere of influence across their former imperial regions, whilst spouting extreme anti-Israel rhetoric, and supporting Palestinian terrorist groups. Hence, Israel must prepare the necessary military capabilities in case a direct confrontation with Turkey does break out, as recommended by the Nagel committee report. However, unlike Iran, there are significant forces capable of moderating Turkish belligerence before Turkey reaches foe status. Erdogan has not committed to a consistent Israel policy through the years and has significant economic interest in maintaining a cordial relationship with Israel. Additionally, Israel has plenty of diplomatic avenues to shape Turkey’s behaviour in Israel’s favour. Israel can leverage its relationship with the US, NATO, and Azerbaijan, all partners of Turkey, in moderating tensions, as well as pursue ties with traditional Turkish adversaries like Greece and Cyprus to balance against Turkish power. The future of Turkish-Israel relations is not set in stone, but there is plenty of reason to be hopeful.
[1] Tür, Ozlem. “Turkey and Israel in the 2000s-from cooperation to conflict.” Israel Studies, vol. 17, no. 3, 2012, pp. 45-66.
[2] “Timeline: Main Events in the Gaza Flotilla Affair.” Reuters, 2010, https://www.reuters.com/article/world/timeline-main-events-in-the-gaza-flotilla-affair-idUSTRE6562BN/. Accessed 21/01/2025.
[3] Obel, Ash. “Israel and Turkey to Restore Ambassadors in Full Renewal of Diplomatic Ties.” timesofisrael.com, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-and-turkey-to-restore-ambassadors-in-full-renewal-of-diplomatic-ties/. Accessed 21/01/2025.
[4] Soylu, Ragip. “Turkey Severs All Relations with Israel, Says Erdogan.” Middle East Eye, 2024, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-severs-all-relations-israel-says-erdogan. Accessed 19/01/2025.
[5] Etzion, Udi. “Nagel Committee Warns Israel Must Prepare For Potential War with Turkey” The Jerusalem Post, 2025, https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-83636. Accessed 19/01/2025.
[6] “Overview | UNHCR Turkey.” UNHCR Turkey, 2025, www.unhcr.org/tr/en/ne-yapiyoruz/overview. Accessed 21/01/2025.
[7] Quitaz, Suzan. “The Historic Ties Between Israel and the Kurds of Iraq Will Continue.” Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2023, https://jcpa.org/article/the-historic-ties-between-israel-and-the-kurds-of-iraq-will-continue/. Accessed 19/01/2025
[8] “Leader of New Syrian Government to Make First Foreign Visit to Türkiye.” Report News Agency, 2025, https://report.az/en/region/leader-of-new-syrian-government-to-make-first-foreign-visit-to-turkiye/. Accessed 19/01/2025.
[9] Dalmis, Ibrahim. “Public Opinion and Reaction to Israel’s War on Gaza after October 7 in Türkiye.” Insight Turkey, 2024, https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/public-opinion-and-reaction-to-israels-war-on-gaza-after-october-7-in-turkiye. Accessed 19/01/2025.
[10] Kenez, Levent. “Erdogan Still Maintains Close Ties with Muslim Brotherhood despite Reproachement with Sisi” Nordic Monitor, 2024, https://nordicmonitor.com/2024/09/erdogan-still-maintains-close-ties-with-muslim-brotherhood-despite-rapprochement-with-sisi/. Accessed 19/01/2025.
[11] “Iran – United State Department of State.” United States Department of State, 2023, https://www.state.gov/reports/2022-report-on-international-religious-freedom/iran/. Accessed 21/01/2025.
[12] “Turkey – United States Department of State.” United States Department of State, 2023, https://www.state.gov/reports/2022-report-on-international-religious-freedom/turkey/. Accessed 21/01/2025.